For years, the electric cars on display at the Detroit auto show looked like something Captain Kirk would drive.They tended to be so outrageously futuristic – glass canopies for roofs, tillers for steering wheels, tiny tan-colored tires – that few people took them seriously.
But this year, the North American International Auto Show is devoting a 37,000-square-foot display to electric cars on the main floor at Cobo Hall, acknowledging in the heart of the so-called old-world auto industry that electric vehicles have officially arrived.
The show opens Monday.
At least two of the vehicles here – the high-profile Chevrolet Volt and ambitious Nissan Leaf – will begin arriving at dealerships late this year. While some estimate that the Volt will cost $40,000, Nissan says it intends to price the Leaf close to a "family sedan," which typically sells for between $20,000 and $25,000.
In addition, BMW will introduce an electric-powered 1-series BMW "test vehicle" at the main show, and Toyota will unveil another hybrid.
"It's happening," said John O'Dell, a senior editor at Edmunds.com who also oversees the California-based company's Greencaradvisor.com. "The Volt is a real-world vehicle. The Leaf is a real-world vehicle."
Proponents of electric cars say a combination of political, energy and environmental forces have pushed the cars from whimsical concepts to daily commuters. The strongest shove probably came from the Obama administration, which imposed more stringent fuel economy standards requiring cars to get an average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016.
Even if automakers continue to make their gas engines more efficient, most will struggle to meet that standard and need help from new vehicles with alternative power plants, industry officials say.
"They can't make it by continuing to build the cars they sell today," said Mike Omotosa, senior manager of powertrain at J.D. Power and Associates.
Small slice of sales
Although electric vehicles will be more prominent this year in Detroit than ever, they will still account for only a small percentage of the vehicles at the show, which is probably appropriate.
"Our forecast is only for a small number of electric vehicles to be sold over the next 10 years," Omotosa said. "We think sales of electric vehicles will go over 100,000 by 2013 only if you add in plug-in hybrids."
At that level, they would account for less than 1 percent of the estimated 14 million or so new-vehicle sales annually.
"I love electric cars, but if there had been huge consumer demand for them, even Detroit would have seen it and done something about it," O'Dell said.
Ten years from now, gas engines will still power the majority of new vehicles, industry officials said. "But instead of 90 percent of the market, maybe they'll have 60 or 70 percent," Omotosa said.
Still, this year's launch of the Volt and Leaf will help build the infrastructure needed to support and encourage further electric-vehicle sales, advocates say.
Moreover, GM, Nissan and Ford are involved in efforts to improve the vehicles' lithium-ion batteries and increase their range – a major concern with electric cars.
Battery development
Most of the new vehicles that will be available in the next year or two have ranges of about 100 miles between charges and work best as urban-commuter vehicles. Their ranges can drop dramatically when they are driven extensively at highway speeds or use conveniences such as air-conditioning and heating systems.
"Between now and 2015, we expect batteries to go through at least two iterations of development," said Nancy Gioia, director of global electrification at Ford Motor Co.
Later this year, Ford plans to introduce an all-electric version of its small Transit Connect van and will bring to market an all-electric Focus compact in 2011.
"We don't view electrification as a necessity to meet any country's fuel-consumption requirements," Gioia said. "We're approaching it on a much broader front than that."
Ford expects 10 to 25 percent of its overall fleet of cars and trucks to have some level of electric power by 2020. Most will probably be hybrids, she said.
Meanwhile, Nissan has been working for 17 years to develop the batteries and technology needed to build the Leaf, said Mark Perry, director of product planning. The company thinks that the Leaf will account for 10 percent of its total sales volume in the U.S. – or about 90,000 cars a year.
"This is not a vehicle that you will take on a trip down Route 66, but this is a daily-use car," Perry said.
The Leaf is a compact five-passenger hatchback capable of a 90 mph top speed and a range of about 100 miles, he said. Nissan has not decided what sort of warranty will be offered with the Leaf or how long to back its expensive battery pack.
But Perry contends that the Japanese automaker can make money on the Leaf if it is priced comparably to midlevel family sedans.
"We can make money at that price because it's our own battery pack, our own technology," he said.
Like all electric vehicles, the Leaf also has geopolitical forces in its favor. All consumers have been burned by volatile fuel prices, and most yearn to be free of it, Perry said.
"As we look at our launch in the U.S., in Europe, in Japan, our goal is to become a leader in this technology," he said. "We want to get to that electrification hill and plant our flag."
source: dallasnews
